Israel Iran Conflict.
CERG GROUP
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Current Status on Iran Israel Conflict 18 June 2025
Current Status of the Conflict
The conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated dramatically in mid-2025, marking a significant turning point in their
historically adversarial relationship. Israel carried out a series of powerful airstrikes targeting Iranian military
infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and key personnel. This move represented a major strategic gamble and an open
challenge to Iran's regional influence and attempt to remove the Iranian regime from power.
In retaliation, Iran launched a coordinated barrage of missiles and drones targeting critical Israeli urban centres and
infrastructure. The response was unprecedented in scale and sophistication,
revealingIran’sgrowingmilitarycapabilitiesanditswillingnesstoconfront Israel directly.
Regional Responses and Power Alignments
Pakistan
Pakistan condemned Israel’s actions, calling them aggressive and destabilizing. Islamabad expressed strong political
support for Iran, framing the conflict as a violation of regional sovereignty. However, Pakistan remains cautious about
escalating its involvement due to potential repercussions from the U.S. and its fragile domestic security situation.
China
China is primarily concerned with protecting its energy interests, as it relies heavily on Iranian oil. While Beijing has not
taken overt military steps, it has positioned itself diplomatically in support of Iran and is quietly leveraging its global
influence to urge restraint. China also sees an opportunity to expand its strategic influence in the Middle East as U.S.
credibility is tested.
Russia
Russia views the conflict as a useful distraction from its own entanglements in Ukraine and Europe. Moscow may
increase its military and technological cooperation with Tehran, seeking to deepen its footprint in the Middle East
while challenging Western dominance in the region. Russia sees Iran as a valuable partner in a broader struggle against
NATO-aligned states.
United States
The U.S. has responded with a show of military force, deploying aircraft and naval assets to the region. The
administration is under pressure to support Israel while avoiding a wider war that could draw in multiple global actors.
U.S. policymakers are split between pushing for de-escalation and preparing for deeper involvement, especially if Iran
crosses certain red lines, such as attacks on American personnel or base.CERG GROUP
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Potential Escalation Scenarios
1. Full-Scale Regional War
Proxy forces like Hezbollah, Syrian militias, or Houthis may become more active, escalating the conflict across multiple
borders. This could draw Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and possibly Saudi Arabia into a broader war.
2. Energy Crisis
Iran controls access to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil trade. Any disruption would spike oil
prices dramatically, causing inflation and economic instability worldwide.
3. Nuclear Tensions
Continued Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear sites might push Tehran to begin targeting of Israeli nuclear sites and
reactors
4. Proxy Expansion and Cyberwarfare
Both Iran and Israel possess significant cyber capabilities. The conflict could expand to attacks on infrastructure,
communications, and financial systems regionally and globally.
5. Depletion of Israeli Air Defence Missiles
Israel’s defence heavily relies on missile interception systems such as the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow
batteries. If the current barrage of Iranian missiles and drones continues unabated, Israel risks exhausting its stockpile
of interceptor missiles within weeks. This shortage would leave Israeli cities and military assets vulnerable to sustained
attacks, potentially causing high civilian casualties, infrastructure damage, and forcing Israel into urgent resupply
requests from the U.S. or emergency changes in military strategy, possibly escalating the conflict further.
6. Increased Involvement of Arab Nations
Rising tensions have stirred broader regional dynamics, prompting some Arab countries to reassess their stance. While
many Gulf states currently maintain a cautious approach, nations like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and
Egypt might increase their involvement—whether through direct military support for proxy groups, providing
intelligence and logistics, or limited strikes against Iranian or allied forces. This escalation risks transforming the
conflict into a wider Sunni-Shia sectarian war, threatening the fragile balance in the Middle East and increasing the
likelihood of prolonged warfare.
Strategic Implications for Major Powers
United States risks being drawn into another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict while balancing global commitments in
Europe and the Indo-Pacific.CERG GROUP
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Russia may increase arms supplies and military cooperation with Iran, further polarizing the region.
China is likely to deepen economic ties with Iran as a counterbalance to Western sanctions, while advocating
diplomatic solutions to protect trade routes and energy supplier
Pakistan may leverage the situation to enhance its regional influence but will tread carefully to avoid direct conflict
with Western powers.
Worst-Case Escalation Scenario
If the conflict spirals out of control, the consequences could be catastrophic:
1. Multi-Front Regional War
Iran fully mobilizes proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen; Saudi Arabia and Gulf states intervene; Israel launches
limited ground operations, expanding the battlefield drastically.
2. Direct Confrontation Between Global Powers
U.S. and Russia could face off indirectly or directly due to their backing of opposing sides, with China and Pakistan
complicating the geopolitical landscape further.
3. Nuclear Weaponization and Use
Under extreme pressure, Israel could deploy nuclear weapons, possibly prompting a retaliatory strike by Iranian allies
or other regional actors.
4. Global Economic and Humanitarian Catastrophe
Oil exports from key chokepoints would be severely disrupted, causing skyrocketing prices and triggering a global
recession. Massive refugee flows from conflict zones would overwhelm neighbouring countries and Europe, sparking
humanitarian crises.
5. Cyberwarfare and Infrastructure Collapse
Escalated cyberattacks could target vital infrastructure worldwide, spilling over into networks of the U.S., Russia, and
China, potentially igniting a new form of global conflict.
6. Collapse of Israeli Air Defences
A depletion of interceptor missiles could lead to a surge in successful Iranian missile strikes, overwhelming civilian and
military targets and forcing Israel into more drastic retaliatory measures or emergency military mobilization.CERG GROUP
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7. Arab States’ Active Military Engagement
Full-scale involvement of Saudi Arabia and other Arab states could transform the conflict into a wider sectarian war,
multiplying fronts and dramatically increasing casualties and destruction.
Global and Economic Problems
The conflict threatens to disrupt the global economy on multiple fronts. The Strait of Hormuz alone handles
approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply; any interruption could trigger energy shortages, severe price hikes,
and inflationary pressures globally. This would exacerbate economic instability in already fragile economies, possibly
pushing some into recession.
Global trade routes passing through the Middle East may become unsafe, raising shipping costs and delaying supply
chains. These disruptions could affect industries worldwide, from manufacturing to food supply, increasing costs for
consumers everywhere.
Humanitarian consequences include vast displacement of populations, overwhelming aid organizations and
neighbouring countries. Refugee crises may destabilize regions far beyond the Middle East, fuelling political unrest and
increasing migration pressures worldwide.
Conclusion
The Iran-Israel conflict in 2025 has entered a perilous and volatile phase with an increased risk of rapid escalation.
Israel faces the alarming possibility of exhausting its critical air defence missile reserves, which would leave civilian
populations highly vulnerable to devastating attacks. This shortage could compel Israel to adopt more aggressive
military responses, significantly raising the risk of widespread casualties and destruction. Meanwhile, Iran shows no
signs of slowing its campaign and may soon deploy new and advanced weapon systems— potentially akin to the
Russian Oreshnik—which could alter the battlefield dynamics further.
At the same time, the risk of broader involvement by Arab states threatens to expand the conflict into a larger regional
war with deep sectarian undertones. These developments, compounded by the strategic interests and interventions of
major global powers, elevate the stakes to unprecedented levels.
Despite the intense military pressure, the likelihood of regime change in Iran remains minimal in the near term. The
current Iranian government maintains strong internal control through its security apparatus and popular nationalist
sentiment fuelled by foreign aggression. While prolonged conflict could increase internal strain, immediate collapse or
overthrow of the regime is unlikely.CERG GROUP
CERG GROUP
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Email: tony@cerggroup.com
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